Multivariate Regression Residual Analysis Report

The Residual Analysis Report shows how the multivariate regression model fits the historical data series. Figure 9-2 shows a sample Residual Analysis Report.
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The Residual Analysis Report shows how the multivariate regression model fits the historical data series. Figure 9-2 shows a sample Residual Analysis Report.
Figure 9-2. Residual Analysis Report
                                      CA MICS Capacity Planner                          MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION FORECAST AND RESIDUAL ANALYSIS  MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION BASED FORECAST OF: TOTCPUTM  MODEL BASED ON INDEPENDENT ELEMENTS: TSOCPUTM  BATCPUTM  IMSCPUTM  CICCPUTM                                                                                                                          95%                         INDEPENDENT-ELEMENT  PREDICTED      RESIDUAL   -------------PLOT OF RESIDUALS-------------   CONFIDENCE    DATE    TOTCPUTM       NAME      VALUE     TOTCPUTM      TOTCPUTM   -18723              0.0              ퟎ   LIMITS  -------  ----------    --------  ---------  ----------    ----------  -------------------------------------------   ----------  04JAN97  95:34:40.7    TSOCPUTM      47321  91:47:15.0     3:47:25.7  |                    0ﯯ뻻ﯯ      |    1:26:03.7                         BATCPUTM      37461                            |                    0                    |                         IMSCPUTM     118575                            |                    0                    |                         CICCPUTM      60716                            |                    0                    |                                                                        |                    0                    |  11JAN97  91:11:54.9    TSOCPUTM      47779  90:36:08.0     0:35:46.9  |                    0                  |    1:20:01.3                         BATCPUTM      37663                            |                    0                    |                         IMSCPUTM     115851                            |                    0                    |                         CICCPUTM      59529                            |                    0                    |                                                                        |                    0                    |  18JAN97  93:57:10.4    TSOCPUTM      49732  92:14:06.2     1:43:04.2  |                    0ﯯ              |    1:04:26.9                         BATCPUTM      36463                            |                    0                    |                         IMSCPUTM     119521                            |                    0                    |                         CICCPUTM      59195                            |                    0                    |                                                                        |                    0                    |  25JAN97  92:25:59.9    TSOCPUTM      52382  93:46:39.6    -1:20:39.6  |               -----0                    |    1:02:14.1                         BATCPUTM      35767                            |                    0                    |                         IMSCPUTM     121372                            |                    0                    |                         CICCPUTM      59275                            |                    0                    |                                                                        |                    0                    |  01FEB97  94:15:30.1    TSOCPUTM      52535  94:58:53.1    -0:43:22.9  |                  --0                    |    1:03:10.5                         BATCPUTM      36859                            |                    0                    |                         IMSCPUTM     122859                            |                    0                    |                         CICCPUTM      59992                            |                    0                    |                                                                        |                    0                    |  08FEB97  96:10:44.4    TSOCPUTM      54022  97:40:15.2    -1:29:30.8  |               -----0                    |    1:08:11.3                         BATCPUTM      36984                            |                    0                    |                         IMSCPUTM     126560                            |                    0                    |                         CICCPUTM      61944                            |                    0                    |
The Residual Analysis Report includes the following information:
MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION BASED FORECAST OF:
The dependent data element name that you specify on the entry screen.
MODEL BASED ON INDEPENDENT ELEMENTS:
The independent elements that you use to develop the model. This list might differ from the list of independent elements specified in the Model Analysis Report shown in Figure 9-1. This difference results from deleting proposed independent elements based on the minimum r-squared improvement criterion.
The columns of the report are discussed below:
DATE
The date ending value for the week or month represented by the observation.
Independent Element Name (TOTCPUTM)
The actual historical observations for the data element being modeled. Note that if the last two characters of the data element name are TM, the program assumes that the value is in seconds and uses a SAS TIME10.1 format for the report.
Two columns appear under the heading INDEPENDENT-ELEMENT for each independent element used in the model.
NAME
The name of the independent element.
VALUE
The value of the independent element for the interval.
The remaining columns of the report are described as follows:
PREDICTED (TOTCPUTM)
The predicted value for the dependent variable for the interval using the regression equation fit to the historical data. If the last two characters of the data element name are TM, the program assumes that the value is in seconds and uses a SAS TIME10.1 format for the report.
RESIDUAL (TOTCPUTM)
The error term in the regression equation. The residual is equal to the difference between the actual historical observation and the predicted value. The residual value for a point deleted from the modeling process is of no concern because the model was not developed to account for the observation. If the last two characters of the data element name are TM, then the program assumes that the value is in seconds and uses a SAS TIME10.1 format for the report.
PLOT OF RESIDUALS
The residual values plotted over the range from minus to plus the maximum residual value.
CONFIDENCE LIMITS
The confidence limits for the forecast. The confidence limits bound the potential error that might exist in the forecasts produced by the model. The confidence limits are a function of the independent element estimates provided, rather than monotonically increased as was the case with models developed by the Univariate Model Forecasting. If the last two characters of the data element name are TM, the program assumes that the value is in seconds and uses a SAS TIME10.1 format for the report.